Headline CPI recorded at +0.25% mom/+3% yoy in Apr24(+0.52% mom/+3.05% yoy in Mar24), higher than ours and consensus at roughly +0.3%mom/+3.2% yoy. The moderation in inflation mainly comes from lower FnB prices at -0.03% mom/+7% yoy (+1.42% mom/+7.4% yoy in Mar24). Top5 goods that have monthly declined the most were Chili, Rice and Chicken which is consistent with the seasonality of Eid festivity.
The rice price begun to normalize at -2.3% mom/+16% yoy in Apr24 (+3.3% mom/+19.6% yoy in Mar24),as rice imports were all time high at +144% yoy in Mar24 (+56% yoy in Jan24). The rice price is projected to normalize going forward along with the upcoming harvest season.
For now, we keep our inflation expectation at c.3.59% in FY24 (+2.61% yoy in FY23) due to higher economic activity from election events. We see the increase in inflation to be aligned with seasonality, however the development in Rupiah may prompt BI to put another 25bp rate hike to 6.5% in May24 meeting.We see the increase in BI rate may help to prevent inflation pass-through from Rupiah depreciation.
Sumber : IPS
powered by: IPOTNEWS.COM
